Before the first signal.
Define the right test.
A practical discussion guide for deciding what a fraud-prevention pilot should demonstrate.
Choose one question
Start with a specific question: for example, whether reviewing a defined payment pattern helps identify confirmed fraud without disproportionately interrupting legitimate customers. Avoid trying to validate every use case in one pilot.
Establish the baseline
Describe how the same cases are handled today. Record the definitions, time window and operational process used for comparison. A baseline makes an improvement claim testable.
Agree on reliable outcomes
Define what counts as confirmed fraud, a legitimate customer, an unresolved case and an inconclusive result. Consider delayed outcomes such as chargebacks before choosing the evaluation window.
Measure the trade-offs
Include legitimate customer friction and reviewer workload alongside fraud outcomes. A rule that creates more alerts is not necessarily a better rule.
Decide how to proceed
Agree in advance on the evidence needed to continue, revise or stop the pilot. Treat the pilot as a learning exercise with a clear decision at the end.